post logo decor
  • Outlook

LNG Outlook 2026

Strategies for survival in the coming LNG flood.

Preparing for a world of excess LNG capacity, uncertain demand, and emerging AI.
Jan 2026 Gas Strategies
Download

Preparing for a world of excess LNG capacity, uncertain demand, and emerging AI

Many factors are combining to drive a metamorphosis of the LNG industry over the coming years. These include a flood of new LNG capacity, highly uncertain demand growth, the recent influx of myriad new players and the introduction of AI across the value chain – all amid the prospect of plummeting prices. Conventional wisdoms will be challenged, and some market players could face existential crises.

Yet the question remains: ‘How should producers, sellers and buyers be preparing themselves?’

The Gas Strategies LNG Outlook 2026, offers analysis of these issues and views on the implications for the global LNG industry.

Highlights

There is now the strong possibility of a period of oversupply that could last for years. In an industry with a deep-seated belief that LNG markets always have, and therefore always will, absorb all available supply, this is an outturn that people should now be preparing for.

"We increasingly view this as the crux of the most significant pivot point for the global LNG business since it's birth over six decades ago."

Gas Strategies’ LNG supply-demand balance, 2025-2050 (as at January 2026)
Source: Gas Strategies

  • In the absence of US shut-ins or some other kind of flexibility response, capacity at existing and post-FID plants exceeds demand from 2027 until around 2033
  • Our LNG demand forecast now posits peak LNG demand of around 670 mt in 2035
  • The opportunity for new LNG investment is lowering, partly because of the FIDs reached during 2025, but also because demand projections to 2050 are lower

The coming wave of new LNG supply, 2025 – 2031 (as at January 2026)
Source: Gas Strategies

  • The build-up of LNG capacity peaks in 2027, but continues into 2031 with cumulative production capacity rising by 255 mtpa
  • The scale and duration of new supply mean portfolio resilience will be tested, with utilisation uncertainty (especially for US projects) becoming a core commercial risk.
  • The unprecedented surge in liquefaction will challenge conventional wisdom, forcing players to rethink assumptions that markets will always absorb all supply

Accelerate your understanding of the upcoming LNG supply glut, uncertain demand, and the impact of emerging AI across the LNG value chain.

Download the Gas Strategies LNG Outlook 2026.