Consensus says one thing. We see another. What if we’re wrong?
This is quite an un uncomfortable question for an independent LNG consultancy in an increasingly crowded consensus.
There is a question that forecasters rarely ask publicly: ‘What if we are wrong?’ In an industry where ever larger LNG capacity additions, new project sanctions, and long-term contracting activity continue to reinforce a broadly bullish narrative, challenging consensus can feel uncomfortable. Yet it is precisely during periods of widespread agreement that alternative scenarios deserve the most scrutiny.
This latest Perspective explores a possibility that is receiving less attention than it perhaps should. What if recent geopolitical tensions and energy security concerns do not strengthen LNG demand as widely expected? What if, instead, they accelerate investment in renewables, nuclear power, domestic gas production, and alternative supply options, thereby reducing dependence on imported LNG?
The implications are significant.
Our updated analysis suggests that even a relatively modest downgrade to long-term LNG demand could translate into a materially deeper and more prolonged period of market oversupply. In that world, the key issue is no longer how much liquefaction capacity gets built, but how much of that capacity is actually utilised.
This is not a bearish call on LNG. We continue to see LNG playing a vital role in the global energy system for decades to come. Rather, it is an invitation to examine whether the industry’s principal risk is changing, from one of insufficient supply to one of uneven demand quality and utilisation.
We do not present this Perspective as a prediction of what must happen but as a scenario that serious market participants should consider. After all, some of the most consequential market shifts are those that initially appear improbable.
You may also want to read our corresponding opinion piece from 04.08.2026, “Strait of Hormuz crisis shifts LNG’s biggest risk from supply to demand”, as shown in The National News business / energy pages in Abu Dhabi / Middle East. You can read the full article here, or explore more about this topic on our Media page which houses many other articles relating to this issue.
Download the Perspective to learn more our view on LNG demand destruction.
